New EV entries cut into Tesla's EV market share

New EV entries cut into Tesla’s EV market share

Tesla is showing the expected signs of shedding market share as more entrants arrive with their own EV contributions.

Although U.S. electric vehicle registrations remain dominated by Tesla, the brand is showing the expected signs of shedding market share as more entrants arrive. Much of Tesla’s share loss is to EVs available in a more accessible MSRP range – below $50,000, where Tesla has trouble competing.

Regardless of brand or price point, early S&P Global Mobility data suggests consumers moving to electric vehicles in 2022 are largely doing so from Toyota and Honda. Both Japanese companies built a U.S. legacy via fuel economy and powertrain technologies – including electrification through hybrids, plug-in hybrids and fuel-cell electric vehicles. S&P Global Mobility conquest data for Tesla’s Model 3 and Y, Ford Mustang Mach-E, Hyundai Ioniq5, and Chevrolet Bolt show strong captures of buyers from the two leading Japanese brands.

Of more than 525,000 EVs registered over the first nine months of 2022, nearly 340,000 were Teslas. The remaining volume is divided unevenly among 46 other nameplates. However, the trends may change as the number of EV buyers becomes more robust. Source: S&P Global Mobility Sales-Based Powertrain Forecast

So far, most EVs continue to be acquired for higher MSRPs and by buyers with higher incomes than the demographic profile for total light-vehicle registrations, in part because most EVs in the U.S. are Teslas.

Tesla’s position is changing as new, more affordable options arrive. Given that consumer choice and consumer interest in EVs are growing, Tesla’s ability to retain a dominant market share will be challenged going forward.

S&P Global Mobility predicts the number of battery-electric nameplates will grow from 48 at present to 159 by the end of 2025, at a pace faster than Tesla will be able to add factories. Tesla’s CEO Elon Musk confirmed (again) during a recent earnings call that the company is working on a vehicle priced lower than the Model 3, though market launch timing is unclear.

Tesla’s model range is expected to grow to include Cybertruck in 2023 and eventually a Roadster, but largely the Tesla model lineup in 2025 will be the same models it offers today.

Tesla has opened two new assembly plants in 2022 and is looking for the site of its next North American plant. Tesla today is the brand best equipped for taking advantage of the immediate surge in EV demand, though manufacturing investments from other automakers will erode this advantage sooner than later.

Throughout 2022, EVs have gained market share and consumer attention. In an environment where vehicle sales are limited by inventory and availability, EVs have gained 2.4 points of market share year over year in registration data compiled through September – reaching 5.2% of all light vehicle registrations – according to S&P Global Mobility data.

New EVs from Hyundai, Kia and Volkswagen have joined Ford‘s Mustang Mach-E, Chevrolet Bolt (EV and EUV) and Nissan Leaf in the mainstream brand space. Meanwhile, luxury EVs from Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Audi, Polestar, Lucid, and Rivian – as well as big-ticket items like the Ford F-150 Lightning, GMC Hummer, and Chevrolet Silverado EV – will plague Tesla at the high end of the market.

With the Model Y and Model 3 combined taking 56% of EV registrations, the other 46 vehicles are competing for scraps until EVs cross the chasm into mainstream appeal.

But consumer willingness to evolve to electrification remains the largest wildcard. Looking past Model Y and Model 3, no single model has achieved registrations above 30,000 units through the first three quarters of 2022. The second-best-selling EV brand in the US is Ford. However, Mach-E registrations of about 27,800 units are about 8% of the volume Tesla has captured, according to S&P Global Mobility data.

Tesla has four of the top five EV models by registration; in the sixth through 10th positions are the Chevrolet Bolt and Bolt EUV, Hyundai Ioniq5, Kia EV6, Volkswagen ID.4 and Nissan Leaf. Through September, the Bolt has seen about 21,600 vehicles registered, Hyundai and Kia are in the 17,000-18,000-unit range, and VW approached 11,000 units. Including the tenth-place Leaf, no other EV has had registrations above 10,000 units over the first nine months of 2022.

An existing pool of current EV owners who also have pickups can be a benefit for the efforts in the full-size EV pick-up space, particularly for the Ford F-150 Lightning, Chevrolet Silverado EV and GMC Sierra EV, each of which is aimed at a traditional pick-up use case and owner. The Rivian S1T, GMC Hummer EV and Tesla Cybertruck each occupy a lifestyle pickup space, geared toward innovator buyers and statement-makers, and could be more likely to conquest buyers to the pickup segment as well as to an EV purchase. But for now, electric vehicles remain the provenance of sedans and small SUVs.

You May Also Like

Canoo expands EV fleet with Zeeba

The announcement is part of an existing agreement with Zeeba that awarded a total of 5,450 electric vehicles.


Canoo Inc. added electric vehicles to the fleet of Zeeba, a national fleet management company. The announcement is part of an existing agreement with Zeeba that awarded a total of 5,450 electric vehicles, with a binding commitment of 3,000 Lifestyle Delivery Vehicle (LDV) EVs, for its national fleet.

“Our partnership with Zeeba signifies a major step forward in the electrification of commercial fleets across the United States, where EVs are the ideal use case,” Tony Aquila, investor, executive chairman, and CEO of Canoo said. “With impressive revenue growth, Zeeba has increased its number of clients by 10 times in the last two years and has a large backlog of clients waiting for Canoo vehicles. We are excited to work with a dynamic, skilled team that is expanding its national fleet.”

Denso works to improve the range of EVs in extreme temps

The collaboration with Betterfrost aims to develop a low-energy defrost and defog system for electric vehicles.

EV charging stations
Cold weather range loss and EVs: Separating fact from fiction

EVs are frequently criticized during colder months for the range loss they experience, but is this criticism valid?

Carrier Transicold launches all-electric refrigeration unit

Carrier Transicold said the unit provides nearly 40% more cooling capacity with greater efficiency than the unit it succeeds.

Recycled Rubber Coalition white paper examines EV impact on scrapped tires

The Coalition estimates there will be a 12% increase in the number of scrap tires that will be produced as drivers transition to EVs.


Other Posts

Chrysler Halcyon Concept is the company’s latest take on an autonomous EV

The company will launch its first battery-electric vehicle in 2025 and will feature an all-electric portfolio in 2028.

Allison Transmission selected as e-axle supplier by Oshkosh Corp.

The Allison eGen Power 100S was integrated into the McNeilus Volterra ZSL electric refuse vehicle, designed for the waste management industry.

Lightning eMotors enters an agreement to sell assets

The asset sale will allow the company to sell off its technologies and products to a new owner rather than go through liquidation or bankruptcy proceedings.

Mullen earns CARB certification for Class 3 electric truck

The certification is awarded to vehicle manufacturers who meet specific emissions standards in compliance with CARB regulations.